A new satellite may transform how we predict solar storms

A new satellite may help scientists more accurately forecast those strong geomagnetic storms that brought us the brilliant aurora displays in May!

Let’s talk about why this new satellite, GOES-U, is important, and how a new instrument called a compact coronagraph could completely transform the way we predict space weather.

GOES-U was built by Lockheed Martin and it’s scheduled for launch on June 25 at 5:16 pm ET on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket. The mission was delayed by a few months because of an issue with a liquid oxygen leak in the center core of the Falcon Heavy, but it’s looking like we’re good to go for June. Once GOES-U launches it will go through a lot of testing to make sure everything is working correctly; it’s expected to be operational in the spring of next year.

GOES-R, not to be confused with Gozer

GOES-U is the fourth and final satellite in the GOES-R series, which stands for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, and they’re the most advanced weather satellites the U.S. has. They’re stationed in geosynchronous orbit, which means the speed that they orbit the Earth matches the Earth’s rotation — so they’re basically always at the same spot relative to the Earth. They’re in geostationary orbit, which is a specific kind of geosynchronous orbit, which means they’re located at the plane of the Earth’s equator.

They view the Western hemisphere from the west coast of Africa to New Zealand.

This is a view of the current GOES fleet and the area it covers. GOES-U will replace GOES EAST (which is currently GOES-16) and become GOES-19 once it is operational. There are spare satellites you can see here in case one of the two primary GOES satellites, EAST and WEST, become non-operational.

These satellites provide advanced imagery of the Earth and its atmosphere, measurements of Earth’s environments, mapping of lightning activity, monitoring of solar activity, wildfire activity — they’re really important.

The instruments I’m obligated to tell you about before I can get to the one that REALLY excites me…

The GOES-R program is run through a joint NOAA and NASA office, so if you’re wondering why I’m talking about a weather satellite (which, Earth weather is not a specialty of mine), that’s why! GOES-U will have some features that focus specifically on space weather that I am very excited about.

All GOES-R satellites are equipped with the Advanced Baseline Imager, or ABI, to image the Earth. They scan the disc of the Earth every 10 minutes, and have the ability to zoom in to track storms with 30 second updates.

If you saw that awesome footage of the April total eclipse from space, that was GOES-16’s ABI, the satellite that GOES-U is going to replace.

When GOES-16 is retired, if it’s still capable of generating data, it will be repurposed and possibly repositioned — for example, GOES-3 served for over 40 years — so they won’t just de-orbit a functioning satellite when it’s replaced.

The GOES-R satellites also have a geostationary lightning mapper, or GLM, which helps them detect and map lightning — whether it’s cloud to cloud, within a cloud, or cloud to ground, over land and the ocean. Studying lightning strikes helps weather forecasters predict the severity of storms because rapid increases in lightning activity often precede severe thunderstorms. This camera can take pictures of Earth at 500 times per second to track lightning.

…the first operational compact coronagraph!

The things I am really excited about on GOES-U though, as a space person, are the tools for monitoring the sun and solar weather. The spacecraft carries seven total instruments, and six were included on other spacecraft. But the seventh will be the first operational compact coronagraph and will help scientists forecast space weather. Let’s break it down.

The compact coronagraph, called CCOR, will help scientists detect and, importantly, forecast coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. CMES are often triggered by solar flares, or violent explosions that are a release of radiation and the sun’s magnetic field on the surface of the sun. These are often connected with sunspots, which are cooler darker areas on the sun that produce solar activity.

Now, CMEs can occur as the result of solar flares. They’re bubbles of charged plasma and the sun’s magnetic field that are violently released into space. These energetic particles and magnetic field travel through the solar system, away from the sun, after they’re ejected. When they interact with the Earth’s magnetic field, they can produce geomagnetic storms that can affect power grids, satellites, GPS, and also produce the northern and southern lights. (Here’s more on that brilliant aurora display in May, what caused it, and why we’re having all this solar weather right now.).

The way a coronagraph works is that it basically blocks out the light from the sun’s visible surface in order to be able to better see the corona, or outer atmosphere.

Think of how the sun looked during the total eclipse this year — whether you were lucky enough to see totality in person or just saw photos, you can see the visible corona when the moon fully blocks the sun in our sky because it’s not washed out by the light of the sun.

CCOR is revolutionary because of its small size, which means it can be paired with a satellite the size of a small school bus like GOES-U, as well as because it will provide continuous observations of the sun’s outer atmosphere, so scientists will be able to directly study the area where these space weather events originate.

Right now, we use the LASCO instrument on the SOHO orbiter, a joint venture between the ESA and NASA launched in 1995, for information on CMEs and solar weather. These are great instruments but it’s not real-time data. It can take up to 8 hours to download data, it’s not continuously monitoring the sun specifically for space weather, the satellite isn’t in continuous communication with Earth so there can be huge time gaps in the data that have to be filled in — for all these reasons, and more, CCOR is a huge deal. Scientists are hopeful that CCOR data will allow them to issue space weather watches up to 4 days in advance of whether solar weather will hit the Earth and how strong that impact will be. It’s basically all about getting more and better information.

Why predicting solar storms is important

Strong geomagnetic storms can wreak havoc on many things, including electrical systems. Being able to accurately predict space weather events allows operators to take precautions regarding the power grid, like voltage reduction, to prevent widespread damage to the power grid because of a solar storm. It’s very important especially when the sun is active, like it is right now because we’re at solar maximum.

The biggest solar storm on record was the Carrington Event in 1859. If this happened today the infrastructure damage could be so bad that it’d knock out power grids for months, so this is important.

While GOES-U is the last GOES-R satellite to launch, NOAA is already working on the next generation of weather satellites. The first geostationary weather satellite launched in 1975, and the current generation of GOES satellites will last into the 2030s. Next, NOAA will turn its focus to GeoXO, which will take the place of the GOES-R satellites starting in the 2030s, with launch of the first GeoXO satellite scheduled for 2032