JWST will observe the killer asteroid in March, everyone stay calm

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The odds of that asteroid hitting us may have risen

What happened: Last week, I told you all about the asteroid 2024 YR4 (side note: I have never gotten as many texts and DMs about an email as I did about that one. Looks like we all share the same mood right now.)

Well, the odds that it may hit Earth in 2022 have been fluctuating, and they may be as high as 2.3 percent. In March, scientists are going to point JWST at it to get more information.

Why it matters: I mean why it matters is pretty self-explanatory: This asteroid isn’t big enough to be a planet killer (is that a technical term or am I stealing it from the movie Armageddon, who’s to say?) but it could do significant damage if it hit the Earth in a populated area.

The reason scientists are pointing JWST at it and the reason that the odds that it might hit us keep shifting are one in the same: This is a newly discovered asteroid, and as a result, scientists aren’t quite sure about its orbit. This article from the New York Times outlines exactly which groups are involved in calculating these kinds of odds, and I definitely recommend reading it if you want to know more about this process.

The bottom line, though, is that more information on 2024 YR4’s orbit will lead to better models and predictions, which is why scientists are using JWST to study it. Using the telescope, scientists will get a more accurate picture of the asteroid’s size, as well as its position once it travels outside the range of Earth-based telescopes.

To be clear, because I’ve seen a lot of clickbait headlines: This is not an emergency observation. It’s not such a clear and present threat that the Space Telescope Science Institute has wiped the slate of JWST observations in order to look at this asteroid. There is discretionary time built into JWST’s schedule to allow for observations of new discoveries and other last minute things, and that’s what is being used here. The observatory will look at the asteroid for about four hours, and the results will be made publicly available.

Is Artemis III too dangerous?

What happened: The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) released its 2024 annual report that looks at NASA’s risk management, safety culture, and technical execution of its programs — and most of the news is good. But they highlight a few worrisome aspects of NASA’s portfolio, specifically: “Of particular concern are the risks surrounding the development, integration, and execution of the Artemis campaign.”

Why it matters: I’ve talked a lot about the mess that is the Artemis program (to be clear, I support NASA and this program, I want astronauts back on the moon but I don’t think Artemis is being executed particularly well.) I have discussed in depth my concerns about Artemis III and the number of firsts that will happen on that mission. The panel, it seems, shares those concerns.

It’s important to note that the challenges aren’t just technical, though those are considerable. As the report points out, the problems range from geopolitical to medical to budget to industrial, basically everything you can think of is a problem for Artemis III and beyond. I’m going to wait until we find out what’s going on with the Artemis program before I do another deep dive into the program, but I’m very curious to see what happens.

Will SLS be cancelled?

What happened: Bloomberg reported that Boeing is preparing for the possible cancellation of SLS, NASA’s boondoggle of a moon rocket. The company is preparing for layoffs amounting to about 1/3 of the SLS workforce at Boeing (around 400 people) in case NASA does not renew its SLS contracts.

Why it matters: Right now, nothing is certain for NASA (or anywhere else in the federal government), and many of us have speculated that the new administration will cancel SLS (which, I should add, is a darling of the Senate) in favor of SpaceX’s Starship (which is not operational and also is currently grounded thanks to a mishap investigation from the FAA.)

This honestly could mean absolutely nothing. The WARN Act requires U.S. companies with 100 or more employees to notify workers in advance about mass layoffs. That doesn’t mean the layoffs will actually happen, just that Boeing is making required notifications in case they start laying off SLS workers in April.

We still have no idea what will happen with SLS or Artemis. It would make sense for Artemis II and III to fly on SLS because it’s an operational rocket that has had a successful flight (unlike Starship), and Boeing has already done the work on these. Stacking for the Artemis II is underway.

But just because it makes sense doesn’t mean that’s what will happen, so we’ll see. For now, this means nothing until the contracts are actually cancelled and the layoffs occur.

An Einstein Ring in our backyard

What happened: The Euclid Space Telescope from the European Space Agency (ESA) discovered an Einstein Ring around NGC 6505, which is an elliptical galaxy around 590 million light years away.

Why it matters: An Einstein ring occurs when light from a different, more distant galaxy bends around a closer galaxy to form a sort of ring or halo around that closer object. It’s named after Albert Einstein because he posited that light could bend around objects in space, thanks to his theory of relativity. You can really see the Einstein ring in the magnified image below.

In this case, the more distant galaxy is around 4.42 billion light years away. We can see it thanks to a phenomenon called gravitational lensing, which is when an massive object in the foreground bends and magnifies the light of an object much further away.

JWST has taken some excellent shots featuring gravitational lensing. Below, you can see the galaxy cluster SMACS 0723. The arcs within it are the product of gravitational lensing, magnifying much more distant objects behind it.

Blue Ghost is headed for the moon

What happened: Blue Ghost is Firefly’s lunar lander, and it’s finally on its way to the moon. The little lander has been in Earth orbit since its launch on January 15, but yesterday it conducted a translunar injection burn, which means it has left Earth orbit and is on the way to the moon. The transit will take around four days.

Why it matters: This is Firefly’s first lunar landing attempt, as part of NASA’s CLPS initiative, which pays private companies to develop lunar landers in order to deliver payloads to the surface of the moon. Intuitive Machines, which was the first private company to land successfully on the moon, will launch another lunar lander later in February as a part of this program.

Blue Ghost, meanwhile, will spend around 16 days in orbit of the moon preparing for landing, which will likely happen in early March.

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